Author Topic: Trade Deadline Analysis  (Read 1882 times)

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Trade Deadline Analysis
« on: August 03, 2010, 05:59:34 AM »

Trade Deadline Analysis
By Bobby Colton

With the trade deadline coming later today, here is a look at some of the repercussions the already completed deals have in the fantasy world.

Dan Haren (SP) Haren is the lucky man who gets to leave the disastrous desert that is Arizona this summer. I can't guarantee that Haren will have a huge second half for the Angels but what I can say is that the wins will most likely sky rocket with a better team behind him. His ERA will likely be about the same as his move to Anaheim carries a mixed bag -- moving to the AL is bad, getting out of the bandbox in Arizona is good and getting to face the lowly Mariners and A's as division rivals is very good. Given Haren's strong peripherals, especially his k/bb rate (149/29), I see his 4.57 ERA going down as he logs time in LA.
Value = Equal

Joe Saunders (SP) Saunders, the inexplicable centerpiece of the Haren deal, should be an even worse fantasy pitcher on his new team. Saunders was barely playable in fantasy leagues while pitching in a pitcher's park for a good team. Now, with the lowly D-Backs, Saunders goes from barely playable to playing with fire. Saunders doesn't strike anyone out, has a WHIP of about 1.5, and has an ERA over 4.5. Play him at your own risk. Better yet, do not play him at all.
Value = Down

Jhonny Peralta (3B) Peralta's value should stay level at least until the sidelined Brandon Inge retakes his position at the hot corner. Peralta's stat line is a far cry from what one expects from a third baseman (7 homers and 43 RBI). However, he could find time at his former shortstop position given that Will Rhymes, Ramon Santiago, and Danny Worth are all likely to be subpar with the bat. As a middle infielder, Peralta becomes a good bet for plus power/RBI numbers. Bottom line: the Indians' Jayson Nix is the main beneficiary from this deal, while all of the aforementioned Tiger infielders take a hit to their already limited value.
Value = Equal

Scott Podsednik (OF) Pods has huge speed potential for NL only leaguers who are just now getting their chance at the 34 year old Royals castoff. His 31 steals are phenomenal, and so is his .308 average, however, his playing time will crater once Manny Ramirez comes off the DL. I just cannot imagine the Dodgers sitting Ramirez, Matt Kemp, or Andre Ethier in favor of Pods. It seems as if Pods will wallow away on the Dodger bench just as Jim Thome did last year. Alex Gordon's value should increase thanks to Podsednik's departure. Xavier Paul, Garrett Anderson, Jamie Carroll, and Reed Johnson (when he returns) all take a big hit in value.
Value = Down

Roy Oswalt (SP) Oswalt did not get his option picked up and did not get the Astros' all-time wins title, but he did get a sharp increase in fantasy value. Oswalt joins Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels in what might be the most dangerous rotation in baseball. With the Phils' solid bats, Oswalt will win many more games. It's hard for anyone to imagine how Oswalt's peripherals could get much better, so more wins is the only thing likely to improve.
Value = Even

JA Happ (SP) Happ got a raw deal. He was just mediocre in his only start since coming off of the DL this year and the move to Houston will not help at all. Having walked 12 batters in only 15.1 innings this year, and 4 in 5 innings in his only start off the DL for Phili, Happ has a whole lot of room to improve, but I wouldn't count on it. Happ is 27 years old and is more or less the same exact case as fellow lefty-traded-to-a-bad-team-for-a-legit-ace Joe Saunders. Tough break for Happ and Happ owners.
Value = Way Down

Brett Wallace (1B) Wallace has been in trades for Matt Holliday, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Roy Oswalt. Now, Wallace might have a chance at finally cracking the majors. He has 18 homers, 61 RBI, and a .301 average in AAA, and if he can make those numbers hold true in the bigs, he will rival Lance Berkman's stats for this year. He has a real shot to be an impact player next year, and maybe even get there this year.
Value = Way Up

Jorge Cantu (1B) Cantu will take over firstbase duties in Texas and gets a boost in fantasy value with his move to hitter friendly Arlington. Cantu has been stone cold since his scalding April. He might hit as many homers in his two months in Texas as he did in his four months in Miami (10). Oh yeah, did I mention he gets to be part of a high powered offense that includes Josh Hamilton, Vlad Guerrero, and Michael Young? Chris Davis heads to the farm, thereby losing all value. Meanwhile, in Florida, Logan Morrison and Emilio Bonifacio have cemented their value in their leftfield platoon and Wes Helms becomes relevant as a potential regular at third until Chris Coghlan returns.
Value = Up

Miguel Tejada (3B) It's somewhat unclear what Tejada's role will be on his new team. Chase Headley is entrenched at third for the Friars and it is unknown if the former MVP can still pick it at short. The Padres sure hope so because Everth Cabrera just can't hit and Jerry Hairston Jr. is better suited to be a bench option. However, one thing is clear given that his lack of power in the hitter's haven that is Camden Yards, we can expect no power from Miggy in spacious PETCO Park. Until we find out where Tejada will play, all of Headley, Cabrera, and Hairston Jr. take hits in value. In Baltimore, Josh Bell should man third for the foreseeable future.
Value = Down (for now)

Matt Capps (CL) Capps will just go right on closing games in a different uniform, however he should muster a few extra opportunities given that the Twins are infinitely better than the Nationals. He has been lights out, saving 26 games while posting a 2.74 ERA. Given the inordinate price paid for him (Wilson Ramos? Really?), Capps will get every opportunity to secure the role early on and to keep it. However, do not forget that Capps has a somewhat checkered past. As to the Nationals, they will tryout all of Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, and Sean Burnett in the closer role. I am betting on Storen.
Value = Equal

Edwin Jackson (SP) On the surface this seems like a bad move for Jackson. He has struggled with his ERA all year in the NL and now has to contend with the DH spot in his return to the AL. When you look under the surface however, you will find that Jackson enjoyed his greatest success pitching for the Tigers (13-9 with a 3.62 ERA), in the same division he is returning to. Additionally, Jackson will be motivated to pitch well and contribute to the White Sox's playoff push. With a much better team behind him, I think Jackson will actually improve his season and help position the Chisox for another playoff run.
Value = Up (marginally)

Daniel Hudson (SP) Hudson is still just 23 and has a ton of upside. In a keeper league I'd be one of the first on the Hudson bandwagon. Unfortunately, those not in keeper leagues have to face that fact that Hudson just didn't seem ready to contribute at the big league level in his few starts for the White Sox. Hudson faced three mediocre teams (Kansas City, Seattle, and Oakland) yet still could just muster an ugly 6.32 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, and a BAA of almost .300. Bottom line now that he no longer has any hope of getting cheap wins courtesy of a strong Chicago offense, he is virtually unplayable.
Value = Down

Christian Guzman (2B) Guzman had the right to reject the trade, but correctly took the opportunity to play for a contender. He hit a solid .289 in a semi-regular role with the offensively challenged Nats. Now he will be able to combine that solid average with a far greater chance for runs and RBI in a better park with a better lineup around him. Guzman should play every day at second until Ian Kinsler returns, which might not be until late August. Of course, the hitch is that Guzman could end up rotting on the bench come September. In DC, Adam Kennedy and Ian Desmond should play every day now, but Alberto Gonzalez could steal at-bats from either if one of them struggle.
Value = Up

Lance Berkman (1B) Berkman, like Guzman, owned 10 and 5 rights and could have vetoed the deal. Also like Guzman, the Puma did the obvious thing by accepting the deal. It's a little unclear where Berkman will bat in the lineup (my guess is 6th), but regardless of where he hits, he will be more productive than he was in Houston. His paltry numbers this season (.245 average, 13 jacks, and 49 RBI) should improve drastically for his new team. Expect the RBI and run numbers to balloon like crazy. Pedro Feliz could be the main beneficiary, but if Brett Wallace is summoned from AAA you can forget about the offensively challenged Feliz. Marcus Thames, Francisco Cervelli, and Juan Miranda all stand to lose a lot of playing time, and by association, fantasy value.
Value = Up

Austin Kearns (OF) Kearns owners are about to go into a deep depression. There is no way Kearns plays over Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher, or newly acquired Lance Berkman. Kearns had a respectable .268 average to go along with a modest 8 homers and 42 RBI. Kearns owners got lucky with his rise back to prominence this season, and now the luck has turned against them. Michael Brantley will probably get yet another shot in the Indians outfield, but look out for Shelley Duncan to steal AB's, and possibly some Jayson Nix when he's not playing third.
Value = Gone

Glenn Colton Notes: Thanks to Bobby for carrying all the weight this week. Of course, we cannot have readers go through Schultz withdrawal, so without further delay, Schutlz says: "At the time of this writing, the trading deadline news has been dominated by Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren and Matt Capps with Lance Berkman, Edwin Jackson and Austin Kearns creating smaller ripples. A wise roto-owner learns to look beyond the headlines and store away the names of the minor leaguers that are going the other way in these big-headline deals, they usually tend to be very, very good in the near future. The model for the deadline deal has always been the Tigers acquisition of Doyle Alexander in 1987. Alexander, a journeyman in the midst of a startling renaissance, went 9-0 with 3 shutouts and a 1.53 ERA while leading Detroit into the post-season. Who did they give the Braves? A minor leaguer named John Smoltz, who will likely join Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine in Cooperstown someday. Keeping this in mind, remember Wilmer Ramos, the catching prospect blocked by Joe Mauer that now has Ivan Rodriguez to instruct him on the finer parts of the game after being traded for Matt Capps. J.A. Happ isn't an unknown quantity but if you like Michael Bourn, you would do well to pay attention to Anthony Gose, who went to Houston in the Roy Oswalt deal. (However, to find him you will have to look north of the border as he was sent off to Toronto for young slugger Brett Wallace). Another name worth stashing away in the memory banks is Giovanni Soto, not the Cubs catcher but the minor league pitcher the Indians acquired for Jhonny Peralta, for the simple reason that Mark Shapiro knows his young talent. If you can keep these names in the recesses of your memory, you may catch yourself a bargain in 2012 or 2013.

A name that bears recalling with a little more immediacy is Kenley Jansen, the converted catcher that the Dodgers have brought up to bolster their bullpen in the late innings. If the stories are to be believed, Jansen surpasses triple digits on the radar gun and has a wicked slider. In his debut against the Mets, he struck out Angel Pagan and David Wright quite handily and the next day picked up his first major league save. Jansen has nasty closer stuff and you would have to wager that he's being groomed for Jonathan Broxton's spot in 2012, if not sooner. Broxton is only signed through 2011 and Jansen's presence may make the Dodgers current closer an expendable quantity."